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Lone Star Park Picks

Lone Star Park picks: 24 June 2020 By Dave Vaccaro

Get all of today’s free Lonestar Park picks and race day analysis from our expert guest, Dave Vaccaro.

Lone Star Park Picks

Dave Vaccaro is a value capper who likes to find value in races across the globe. Dave’s handicapping represents value lines that make for a profitable day.

You can follow Dave Vaccaro on Twitter at MatrixDave@followthefigures

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RACE 1- MCL 20K 1M TURF- (Race Confidence Rating: 4 of 10)

9-JUST ASK JOEL ran well back on 2/19 against better company on grass. Has run gamely in 4 of his last 5 starts and Asmussen’s numbers fare well with these conditions. Stew Elliot aboard today will help his cause. (9/2)

4-TOUGH COMPANY- In a race that looks to favor a close to pace runner, this gelding gets will get a nod from me at a nice foreseen price. (6/1)

3-BEE RIDGE- comes out of two back to back races that produced multiple next out winners. On the drop today and looks to get back to par numbers after an unfavorable trip at 5F on the grass last out. (5/1)

5-WICKED REBEL-drops from MSW company after making a bold move on the turn last out. Ran evenly early two back on the grass and still looks like he is figuring it out. A bit of a reach but should be at a nice price. (12/1)

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RACE 2- CLM 7.5K N3L  7F DIRT (Race Confidence Rating: 6 of 10)

3-STORMS GOLDEN BOY- May be the speed of the speed here in a race that looks like it may favor a runner on the front end. This gelding posted a 70-target rating for me which is top in the field. A little pace relief today could be what he needs. (7/2)

6-IMA REAL DEAL- Looks to be in his best form of 2020 coming off a game effort last out. This gelding does his best work in the stretch and the extra 1.5 furlongs today may be the difference. (2/1)

2-QUEEN’S REDBOY- Moves up in class from his last effort but brings along a lot of good factors. On the cutback, ran gamely last out for an off the pace score at 1 mile in a race where the pace looked like it would favor the front. (9/2)

1-MY TEXAS CHROME- Will be close to the pace at a nice price. Showed the ability to close against a slow pace last out in a respectable effort. (6/1)

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RACE 3- CLM 15K N2L 1M DIRT (Race Confidence Rating: 7.5 of 10)

7-SOMETHING SUPER-In a race that is lacking a lot of early speed, this gelding could easily find himself alone on the lead but at a low price. Drops in class and looks to be the speed of the speed. (9/5)

5-ANOTHERDAYATTHELAKE- Top target and ability ratings; strong moves on the final turn in last two efforts. However, he did hit a lifetime high speed rating last out and could bounce from this effort. (3/1)

6-GEORGIA DEPUTY-Could be the sleeper in this race, comes off of a strong middle move last out and drops in company today. He will certainly benefit from a pace meltdown as he will be far back early. (9/2)

3-SHANGHAI KIPPER- Another class-dropper coming off of four respectable efforts in 2020. Ran well early two back in a race that produced multiple next-out winners. (5/1)

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RACE 4- CLM 7.5K N2L  6F DIRT (Race Confidence Rating: 8 of 10)

9-TWIRLING AROUND- Should be on the front end in a race with a lot of early speed. However, the drop-in class should help this speed to carry. Has broken par for these conditions three times in her last 6 efforts. Race will go through her at low odds.

6-DOC’S DENITA- Very game efforts last three times out. Will be the one looking to snatch the lead near the top of the stretch. Make a small drop-in class after a 5F victor on the grass last out. (3/1)

3-STORMY DEPENDCIER-Seems to be figuring things out a bit after her last two efforts where she ran evenly against a better than average pace. Will be pressing just off the lead and the jockey change to Vasquez could help her cause as he is 20% with these types. (5/1)

7-BONNIE GRAY-Top target and ability ratings on my scale, this mare could potentially inherit the lead if things go her way. Makes a small drop-in class and stretches to 6F for the first time since 2018. (7/1)

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RACE 5- CLM 25K N2L 5F TURF (Race Confidence Rating: 6 of 10)

8-JACK VAN BERG- Could be on the lead but with a lot of pressure. Will benefit more from staying a bit off the pace as he did three back against better company. Horse likes a fast track and has broken par for these conditions on numerous occasions. (2/1)

2-YOUNG PHILLIP- Looks like a race that will be won by somebody who can adapt to the grass as most of my contenders are making the transition. Asmussen is 17% in turf starts. This colt has been in great form for all of 2020 but is looking to get back to 2019 form where he put up his best numbers. The grass may do the trick. (4/1)

5-PALVERA- Not exactly a stranger to the grass as both of her lifetime victories were on turf at the sprint distance. What worries me a bit is that he is a “need the lead” type in a race filled with early speed. However, he is making a class drop which could allow him to carry. (7/2)

7-NOOLA WIN- My longshot play, he can run just off the pace as well as toward the back. Another runner making his turf debut has posted numbers well above par on multiple occasions on the dirt. (7/1)

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RACE 6- MDN 34K 4 ½ F DIRT (Race Confidence Rating: 0 of 10)

This race is a PASS for me. We are looking 8 out of 10 first time starters which is certainly not my forte.

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RACE 7- ALW35K 6 1/2 F DIRT (Race Confidence Rating: 7 of 10)

7-VIOLENT RIDGE- Comes out of three consecutive races that produced next-out winners. Has set the top figures of this field on numerous occasions and can run on or just off of the lead.  (7/5)

2-DEFENDER-On the cutback today, this horse has run the early portion of his last five route efforts in impressive fashion. Comes out of a key race two back and could be ready to fire today from just off the pace. (7/2)

5-SOAP BUBBLE- A bit of a reach here but should be at nice odds. Made a strong move last out in his 2020 debut before fading in a race that turned out to produce three next out winners from a field of eleven. (7/1)

8-SHIFTY HENRY- Another longshot here has shown the ability to stay with the pace. Showed early interest last out before running into a bit trouble. Won at this level two back against state-bred company. (10/1)

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RACE 8- CLM15K N3L 5F TURF (Race Confidence Rating: 7.5 of 10)

8-STALEMATE-Seems to have figured out the grass on her second try last out. Has shown to run a bit off the pace and has been in improving with each effort in 2020. (9/5)

2-BIG TINY- Threw in a hiccup last out against a slower than average pace, this closer may fit in a bit better today with multiple horses vying for the lead. Bret Calhoun is 16% with turf starts and 20% when 2nd off layoff. (7/2)

10-HAWKEYE GIRL- Longshot but no stranger to the grass. Making her third start of 2020, ran into trouble last out in a race that was taken off the turf. Ran well two back in her 2020 debut. She is a lightly raced horse, averaging 2.5 starts since 2016. (5/1)

5-FLEETA BELLE- Another horse at a big price has run once on the grass where at two turns was sitting just 2 lengths out at the ¾ mark. Comes out of a key race last out while setting above par figures three times around one turn. (8/1)

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RACE 9- 5K CLM 1M DIRT (Race Confidence Rating: 6.5 of 10)

2-TWO MIKES N DOC G- Top target and ability ratings on my scale, comes off three strong efforts against similar company. Last two races produced multiple next-out winners but his lifetime best figure last out points to a potential bounce. (5/2)

4-APPROVETHISMESSAGE- A move on the turn and even finish in last out against similar. This gelding has done is best running at today’s distance on the main track. (3/1)

7-GHOSTLY WHO- Has run respectable efforts in all of 2020. Takes a slight drop today while posting a top figure two back. Should sit just off the pace and will benefit from slightly faster than normal early speed. (9/2)

9-UNBROKEN SONG-My longshot; makes a drop in class today. Strong effort two-back where he closed four lengths on the stretch against better company in a race that produced multiple next-out winners. (8/1)

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