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Evangeline Downs Picks

Evangeline Downs Tips: 8 July 2020 By Dennis Trusty

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Get all of today’s free Evangeline Downs Tips from our guest expert Dennis Trusty.

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RACE 1 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 5.7 out of 10

MR LEO (6) 5/2 if he runs the race back at Fair Grounds where he finished 2nd by a length, he wins this race. They claimed him there for 12,500 and raised him up to 20,000 last time out going 1 mile, which I don’t think he wants to go that far. The negative about this horse is price, and he always seems to find a way to get beat at better tracks if he doesn’t win tonight, I think they have to put him in for 5,000 claimers to get a win.

EASY TO MISS (2) 15-1 if I am looking for value here, which I always am, this horse has had 1 start in his career, it was at Louisiana Downs where he stumbled and improved. He got beat by a next out winner and drops in from maiden special weight to a tag. He has every right to improve here I think he can hit the board and maybe even win if things work out right.

THUNK (8) 9-2 a horse that finds a way to go wide every time and with the 8 post I don’t expect any different, if this horse gets to the inside watch out. Coming out of Louisiana maiden special weight state bred, I think they figured out this horse is a closer for sprint races, just not a very strong kick. Therefore, they drop him in for a claiming tag for the first time this evening could help him, and I think the biggest help he has is there is no speed so he doesn’t have to have a fast closing kick to catch up with them because they will be right there with him.

RACE 2 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 7

MADIBA (1) 4-1 a bit ago, trainer Karl Broberg reclaimed this horse after being claimed from him for 5,000, and he reclaimed for 8,000. It tells a lot when a trainer reclaims a horse but when he does it, I pay extra attention. It’s strange to see that this horse hasn’t won since being claimed back, maybe he didn’t like the tracks of Delta Downs and Sam Houston, or this horse isn’t good anymore. I think Evangeline can be more forgiving for a horse with his running style.

MY PAL TORRES (9) 9-5 you claim off Karl Broberg or Robertino Diodoro, you better bring you’re A game! You better have the condition(race) picked out perfect and you better have it trained perfect. And this is actually a great condition for him, sadly this race came up a little strong, and I don’t like 9-5 on him but he is super consistent. DIXIE BEAT (4) 3-1 speaking of consistent, this horse always seems to run his race, there was 1 race since July where he didn’t run a good race. The problem is, his good races don’t win it but his 2 great races do.

I will say that if you’re taking an exacta box, I would key this horse with the 1/1A and the 9. But winning he has to run his great race.

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RACE 3 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 0.2

TAPIT (3) On Race Day 8-5 this horse on speed figures towers over the field. Ran for 5,000 last time and in my opinion, it didn’t help, and that’s my worry. If you want to take a heavy favorite go for it here, but I don’t want to even though he is the most likely winner

SAILING JETT (2) 7-2 taking a big drop-in class from 12,500 state bred to 5,000 state bred, could help this horse tremendously! Ran a hard-fought 2nd and 3rd place for open 10,000 and 20,000 at Delta Downs and that is enough to convince me here he can run with these.

ABSOLUTE DRAMA (5) 5-1 after 3 races, 2 horrible and 1 bad this field is so bad that the horse might respond and get lucky. If he runs the first race, he ran he battles for something, anything else and well I don’t know.

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RACE 4 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 8 out of 10

SILVER KINGS (9) 5-2 ran down the 5-horse last time for basically the same condition. Closing in like a rabid dog, running down the 5 and I think he does the same thing tonight! This is his 2nd time on turf and I think has every reason to improve.

MANGELSEN (5) 3-1 has the speed and unlike the 9 doesn’t have to close or get the trip but does have a tendency to quit, but has the same tendency to run a good race. Got beat by the 9 horse but came back to hang on by a nose blowing a length lead, but still won.

I’M D’CAT (8) 6-1 I think that this horse has the chance to pin the 9 in if he gets going sooner than the 9. Is cheaper than many in here but does fit if he runs a good race. Also, I like the trainer in here as well!

RACE 5 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 6 out of 10

CHARLIE ROADS (2) 7-2 picks up a top jockey in Tim Thorton for a first-time starter, and she has great breeding out of My Pal Charlie and Brahms mare. Works aren’t fantastic but I still like the breeding for this distance and I like the jockey pick up!

SHE’S GONE D’WILD (8) 9-5 trained by Bret Calhoun from turf to dirt, which worries me because I think this horse is a turf horse that couldn’t get the job done. Either that or the expected a lot more from this horse, and think the dirt will make her improve. I think she is the likely winner and most logical choice but I think you can try to beat her or use her in an exacta or such!

AMERICAN MOM (1) 6-1 getting back to state bred should help her, I don’t know if she wants the sprint distance but I think she wants the state bred. She also might need to be in for a tag if she can’t start running better than that soon. I think she can close from deep and if they fall apart, I think she can get them.

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RACE 6 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 4 out of 10

WHAT POWER (10) 3-1 I don’t like taking a turf horse where 33 of his 38 starts have been on turf. Rylee Grudzien does a fantastic job for such a young trainer; she has such a bright future! If she thinks it’s time to try this horse for as cheap as possible on dirt, then I will believe in her!

LITTLE TOE (2) Little Toe 6-1 I don’t know about the 1-mile distance because this horse always shows speed and quits going that amount of ground I think of the races where he doesn’t quit as bad and is right there.

OVER FUNDED (7) Over Funded 4-1 worst claim I have seen Ron Faucheux make in a long, long time, but Fair Grounds to Evangeline is always been an angle I look for. I think this horse can only get better, question is, is it enough to win? To be determined.

RACE 7 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 6 out of 10

KNIGHTS RANSOM (9) 9-2 class in this field by far, running for 20,000 at Arlington Park, and getting a 2nd place finish as well! If you get 9-2, I think you bet into this horse even though the trainer is horrible. I think Devin Magnon isn’t a great turf rider and still learning, so to get away from him could help him. Hasn’t been out since September but either got injured or wasn’t good enough for Fair Grounds and no turf at Delta. I hope the other but you never know!

RACELYNN (8) 30-1 value on a first-time starter I like the breeding even though she is working out super slow, I think she is worth like a show bet or something like that. She is out of Race Day (Tapit) and an Alphabet Soup mare which does help with sprinting, and could be ok for turf.

I’M ALL MIXED UP (4) I’m All Mixed Up 5-1 I hope they change the tactics up on him, broke slow last time and was used to try to go. Maybe that was a sign plus Saenz stays on who is in my opinion the better gate jockey there and try to send the hell outta him.

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RACE 8 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 9.6 out of 10

COMMANDER SCOTT (8) 5-2 came from Fair Grounds to Evangeline and beat the brakes off the competition, and I honestly expect the same here tonight.

REACH THE CIRCLE (4) 5-1 always runs an average race and I can expect him to be there at the end, just not winning.

PAPA BRO (2) 9-2 I think with Deigo Saenz will show speed and then stop, it’s just a question of when he is going to stop, because again I think the 8 will win this race.

RACE 9 Evangeline Downs

Confidence Level 2 out of 10

RUNCIMAN (6) 4-1 it seems like 1 mile is too far, and 6 furlongs is too short, and this horse is just now figuring out not to quit, or has learned to get going. Very good spot in state breds 5,000 might have had this spot asked for from the Racing Secretary to finally get a win this year.

HUGHES DON’T LOSE (3) Hughes Don’t Lose 5-2 either runs even or quit but keeps getting bet so keeps having me interested.

DON’T LOOK (7) Don’t Look 12-1 and speed and also has picked 3rd by Brisnet so that has me intrigued who also has a great price with a good jockey.

Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoy, and I hope you check out my twitter, and maybe follow if you want to. And follow more from this website!

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